刘志新 北航经济管理学院 二级教授 蓝天杰出教授 博士生导师 教育部新世纪优秀人才 教育部首批新文科研究与改革实践项目负责人，国家一流课程负责人 国家一流专业建设点负责人 北京市第三届学位委员会委员 北京市课程思政教学名师

 

【研究方向】

1.公共债务周期建模与风险控制、通胀预期、财政与货币政策

2.公司融资与投资决策、资产估值与资本运作

3.资本市场分析、金融衍生工具定价

 

【科研课题】

主持在研的国家自然科学基金重点项目《公共债务周期模型、债务风险分析与控制措施研究》、面上项目《企业通胀预期的形成机制及对企业决策影响的研究》；主持完成的国家自然科学基金项目：《基于鞅测度的期货定价模型研究》、《中国证券市场有效性研究》、《完工效益会计方法及应用究》；主持完成的工信部课题项目：《中国工业投资指数研究》，《世界各国支持战略性新兴产业发展的财税政策研究与启示》；主持在研或完成《我国上市公司资本运营模式研究》、《证券公司评价指标分析》、《我国保险资金投资组合管理研究》、《企业财务风险内控体系研究》等横向课题。

 

【主讲课程】

《公司理财》、《投资学》、《并购与重组》、《高级财务会计》、《管理会计》、《宏观经济分析与政策解读》及企业高管培训课程

 

【出版专著】

[1]《中国商品期货市场实证检验--价格特征、运行效率和投资者行为》中国财政经济出版社

[2]《期权投资学》 航空工业出版社

[3]《证券市场有效性理论与实证》航空工业出版社

[4]《公共债务周期模型及实证研究》中国财政经济出版社

[5]《公共债务激增及宏观经济效应研究》中国财政经济出版社

 

【发表论文】

[1] Zhang Y, Liu Z, Jin H. Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in public debt consolidation: the role of fiscal rules and inflation targeting[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2026, 161: 103510.

[2] Zhou C, Liu Z, Xu Y, et al. Public debt dynamics over the business cycle: a fresh perspective[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2026, 31(1): 1005-1023.

[3] 吴祁颖, 王惠文, 刘志新. 基于图模型的行业间波动率与尾部风险溢出效应研究[J]. 计量经济学报, 2026: 1-26.

[4] Liao M, Liu Z, Xu Y. How fiscal rules affect the cyclicality of local government debt? Evidence from China[J]. Empirical Economics, 2025, 69(1): 465-515.

[5] Ren X, Liu Z, Jin H. The macroeconomic effects of public debt booms during recessions: evidence from advanced and emerging market economies[J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2025, 32(19): 2794-2798.

[6] Zhang Y, Liu Z, Jin H. The domestic and spillover effects of fiscal consolidation: the role of fiscal instruments, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls[J]. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2025, 99: 102106.

[7] Zhou T, Liu Z, Xu Y. Characterizing public debt cycles: the non-negligible impact of financial cycles[J]. Empirical Economics, 2025, 68(4): 1529-1566.

[8] Ren X, Liu Z, Jin H. Fiscal consolidation in China: a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis[J]. Applied Economics, 2024, 56(1): 59-80.

[9] Xu Y, Liu Z, Chen J, et al. How official TV news affect public inflation expectations? Evidence from the Chinese national broadcaster China Central Television[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2024, 29(1): 819-831.

[10] Zhao T, Liu Z. Investment of hydrogen refueling station based on compound real options[J]. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2024, 57: 198-209.

[11] Zhao T, Liu Z, Jamasb T. A business model design for hydrogen refueling stations: a multi-level game approach[J]. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2024, 52: 577-588.

[12] Xu Y, Fan B, Liu Z, et al. The intertemporal substitution effect of energy consumption under climate policy changes[J]. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2023, 36(3): 2164866.

[13] Zhao T, Liu Z. Investment timing analysis of hydrogen-refueling stations and the case of China: independent or co-operative investment?[J]. Energies, 2023, 16(13): 5032.

[14] Huang T, Liu Z, Zhao T. Evolutionary game analysis of responding to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism[J]. Energies, 2022, 15(2): 427.

[15] Xu Y, Liu Z, Ortiz J, Petru S. Military industry bubbles: are they crowding out utility investments?[J]. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2022, 35(1): 692-708.

[16] Xu Y, Liu Z, Su C, et al. How do firms form inflation expectations? Empirical evidence from the United States[J]. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2022, 35(1): 1142-1161.

[17] Zhao T, Liu Z. Drivers of CO2 emissions: a debt perspective[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, 19(3): 1847.

[18] Zhao T, Liu Z, Jamasb T. Developing hydrogen refueling stations: an evolutionary game approach and the case of China[J]. Energy Economics, 2022, 115: 106390.

[19] Xu Y, Liu Z, Su C, et al. Causality between actual and expected inflation in central and eastern Europe: evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis[J]. Eastern European Economics, 2021, 59(2): 148-170.

[20] Lv L, Liu Z. Low rates, zero lower bound and monetary policy black hole[J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2021, 28(13): 1114-1120.

[21] Zhang C, Liu Z, Lv L. The impact of firms’ inflation perceptions on investment: evidence from listed manufacturing enterprises in China[C]. E3S Web of Conferences, 2021, 275: 1043.

[22] Zhang C, Liu Z, Zhang Y, et al. Computer intelligent evaluation model and research on the mathematical impact of hiring decisions using big data technology[C]. 2021: 214-218.

[23] Zhang C, Liu Z X, Lv L. Inflation perceptions and expectations and firms’ wage determination: evidence from Chinese listed manufacturing companies[C]. 2021: 61-66.

[24] Chen H, Liu Z, Zhang Y, et al. The linkages of carbon spot-futures: evidence from EU-ETS in the third phase[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(6): 2517.

[25] Su C, Xu Y, Chang H L, et al. Dynamic causalities between defense expenditure and economic growth in China: evidence from rolling Granger causality test[J]. Defence and Peace Economics, 2020, 31(5): 565-582.

[26] Lv L, Liu Z, Xu Y. Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: evidence from the United States[J]. PLOS ONE, 2019, 14(4): e0215366.

[27] Xu Y, Liu Z X, Su C W, Ortiz J. Gold and inflation: expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?[J]. International Finance, 2019, 22(3): 380-398.

[28] Zhao T, Liu Z. A novel analysis of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology adoption: an evolutionary game model between stakeholders[J]. Energy, 2019, 189: 116352.

[29] Xu Y, Liu Z, Ortiz J. Actual and expected inflation in the US: a time-frequency view[J]. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2018, 21(1): 42-62.

[30] Zhang Y, Liu Z, Xu Y. Carbon price volatility: the case of China[J]. PLOS ONE, 2018.

[31] Xu Y, Liu Z, Jia Z, et al. Weibo sentiments and stock return: a time-frequency view[J]. PLOS ONE, 2017, 12(7): e0180723.

[32] Xu Y, Liu Z, Ortiz J. The relationship between media bias and inflation expectations in PR China[J]. Research in International Business and Finance, 2017.

[33] Xu Y, Liu Z, Jia Z, et al. Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?[J]. Portuguese Economic Journal, 2017: 1-19.

[34] Xu Y, Liu Z X, Chang H L, et al. Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?[J]. Applied Economics, 2017, 49(11): 1098-1123.

[35] Zhang Y, Liu Z, Yu X. The diversification benefits of including carbon assets in financial portfolios[J]. Sustainability, 2017, 9(3): 437.

[36] Sun O, Liu Z. Comparison of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on tackling asset price bubbles: evidence from China’s stock market[J]. PLOS ONE, 2016, 11(11): e0166526.

[37] Xu Y, Liu Z, Zhang X. Heterogeneous or homogeneous inflation expectation formation models: a case study of Chinese households and financial participants[J]. The Singapore Economic Review, 2016: 1740030.

[38] 孙欧, 刘志新, 庞欣. 上市银行政府持股比例与货币政策传导效率：基于中国银行数据的分析[J]. 管理评论, 2015, 27(5): 19-28.

[39] Sun O, Liu Z. Bank capital requirements and bank lending channel of monetary policy[C]. ICIII, 2014.

[40] Hao X, Liu Z, Hao X, Liu Z. Optimal monetary policy rule under model uncertainty in China: analysis based on Bayesian model averaging method[C]. Future Information Engineering, 2014: 1051-1058.

[41] 郝晓辉, 刘志新, 田建强. 模型不确定性下的最优利率规则[J]. 系统工程, 2014(8): 60-66.

[42] 田建强, 刘志新. 包含央行预期方式的时变泰勒规则：基于贝叶斯模型平均方法[J]. 管理评论, 2014, 26(3): 61-69.

[43] 马健, 刘志新, 张力健. 异质信念、融资决策与投资收益[J]. 管理科学学报, 2013, 16(1): 59-73.

[44] 庞欣, 刘志新. 上市银行经营绩效与货币政策信贷传导有效性[J]. 系统工程, 2013(4): 17-22.

[45] 张迎斌, 刘志新, 柏满迎, 等. 我国社会基本养老保险的均衡体系与最优替代率研究：基于跨期叠代模型的实证分析[J]. 金融研究, 2013(1): 79-91.

[46] 张迎斌, 刘志新, 柏满迎, 等. 我国基本养老金隐性债务变化趋势分析：基于改进精算测算模型的实证研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(5): 40-49.

[47] Jian M, Liu Z, Zhang L. Investor-manager heterogeneous beliefs, corporate financing decision and stock price effect[J]. Management Review, 2012, 10: 006.

[48] Li X, Liu Z. Word-of-mouth effects in the investment of Chinese mutual fund managers[J]. Management Review, 2012, 16(11): 1127-1134.

[49] Pang X, Liu Z, et al. 我国上市银行股权结构与货币政策信贷传导有效性研究[C]. 中国管理科学学术年会, 2012.

[50] Tao H, Zhixin L, Xiaodong S. Insurance fraud identification research based on fuzzy support vector machine with dual membership[C]. Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering (ICIII), 2012, 3: 457-460.

[51] Zhong M, Liu Z. Chinese listed companies financing implement selection on heterogeneous beliefs among investors[C]. Intelligent System Design and Engineering Application (ISDEA), 2012: 800-803.

[52] Zhong M, Liu Z. The futures pricing model based on optimal growth portfolio method[C]. Robotics and Applications (ISRA), 2012: 227-231.

[53] 钟湄莹, 刘志新. 基于仿真的制造系统生产计划与控制[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2012, 38(9): 1261-1266.

[54] 马健, 刘志新, 张力健. 投资者-管理者异质信念、公司融资决策及股价效应[J]. 管理评论, 2012, 24(10): 49-58.

[55] 李晓梅, 刘志新. 我国基金经理投资口碑效应研究[J]. 管理评论, 2012, 24(03): 17-23.

[56] 马健, 刘志新, 张力健. 双重异质信念下中国上市公司融资决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, 20(2): 50-56.

[57] 阚宝奎, 刘志新, 宋晓东, 等. 改进支持向量机在虚假财务报告识别中的应用[J]. 管理评论, 2012, 24(5).

[58] Qiang T J, Xin L Z. Existence of the cost channel of China's monetary transmission[C]. Computing, Control and Industrial Engineering (CCIE), 2011, 1: 329-332.

[59] Wen C, Liu Z. The impact of technology acquisition mode on innovative performance of listed companies[C]. International Conference on Information and Management Engineering, 2011: 177-183.

[60] 温成玉, 刘志新. 技术并购对高技术上市公司创新绩效的影响[J]. 科研管理, 2011, 32(5): 1-7.

[61] 温成玉, 刘志新. 技术并购模式对我国上市公司创新绩效的影响[J]. 当代经济研究, 2011(3): 79-83.

[62] 许玥, 刘志新. 异质信念、融资买空与经济衰退期股市流动性研究[J]. 湖南大学学报(自科版), 2011, 38(5): 89-92.

[63] 徐枫, 刘志新. 融资工具选择和融资规模研究：异质信念视角[J]. 科研管理, 2011, 32(2): 122-127.

[64] 刘志新, 马健. 基于异质信念的股权发行方式及其股价效应[J]. 系统工程, 2011(1): 16-23.

[65] 许玥, 刘志新. 管理者—投资者意见分歧与我国上市公司投资行为[J]. 系统工程, 2011(5): 7-13.

[66] 田建强, 刘志新. 我国货币政策传导成本渠道的存在性检验[J]. 系统工程, 2011(8): 33-37.

[67] Lin Y, Liu Z. Ownership and diversification: an empirical study based on mutual fund enterprise[C]. Database Technology and Applications (DBTA), 2010: 1-4.

[68] 刘志新, 许宁. 基金系内部交叉补贴行为研究[J]. 管理科学学报, 2010, 13(03): 73-80.

[69] 刘志新, 许宁. 晨星评级预测性功能研究[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 23(01): 54-56+60.

[70] 刘志新, 许宁. 基于同群效应的基金经理投资决策研究[C]. 中国管理科学学术年会, 2010.

[71] 蔺元, 刘志新. 基于DEA的上市公司产融结合效率研究[C]. 中国管理科学学术年会, 2010.

[72] 孟建, 刘志新. 基于资本循环视角的产融结合研究[J]. 厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2010(2): 37-42.

[73] 许宁, 刘志新, 蔺元. 基金现金流、明星基金与溢出效应[J]. 证券市场导报, 2010, (01): 64-69.

[74] 李晓梅, 刘志新. 经理特性对基金业绩的影响及内在归因分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2010(3): 143-147.

[75] 马健, 刘志新. 基于异质信念的公司融资决策[J]. 系统工程, 2010(7): 23-30.

[76] Zhijiang, Chen, Zhixin, et al. Causes, hazards and countermeasures of administrative monopoly price[C]. 2010: 143-165.

[77] Feng X, Xin L Z, Jian M. Heterogeneous beliefs and corporate financial decision[C]. Future Information Technology and Management Engineering (FITME), 2009: 301-304.

[78] Huang L L, Liu Z X. Portfolio choice over the life-cycle for Chinese residents with risky housing[C]. Management Science and Engineering, 2009: 956-962.

[79] Li X, Liu Z. Capture managerial skills from mutual fund managers' frequent replacement[C]. 2009 Second International Conference on Future Information Technology and Management Engineering, 2009: 576-579.

[80] 吴惠, 刘志新. 中国高等教育财政投入与经济增长关系模型[J]. 哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009(7): 265-268.

[81] 张力健, 刘志新, 杨继平. 过程控制图在股票收益波动分析中的应用研究[J]. 管理工程学报, 2008, 22(4): 140-145.

[82] 刘志新, 薛云燕. 我国商品期货市场中“即日交易者”过度自信的实证检验[J]. 软科学, 2007, (03): 30-33.

[83] 张力健, 刘志新, 马健, 等. 离散时间不完全市场下基于计价单位投资组合法的期货定价模型[J]. 系统工程, 2007, 25(9): 10-15.

[84] 黄凌灵, 刘志新. 中国居民跨期住房租赁-购置行为动态优化建模及分析[J]. 系统工程, 2007, 25(10): 58-63.

[85] 安宁, 刘志新. 商品期货便利收益的期权定价及实证检验[J]. 中国管理科学, 2006, 14(6): 119-123.

[86] 刘志新, 黄敏之, 欧阳娜. 不完全市场期货定价模型[J]. 系统工程, 2006, (12): 51-55.